FX.co ★ Markets under pressure before the release of FOMC Fed Minutes

EUR / USD, GBP / USD.

On Monday, the absence of American traders in the market went quietly. The eurozone balance of payments for December came in worse than forecast, as the EUR 29.9 billion versus USD 30.5 billion, but over the previous period, the data was revised upward to EUR 35.0 billion from USD 32.5 billion. The account balance, excluding seasonal fluctuations, increased from 40.1 billion euros (revised from 37.8 billion) to 45.8 billion. Overall, the single European currency did not change its price. The British pound lost 34 points because of the statement by the Leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, Guy Verhofstadt about the probable absence of agreement between the UK and the EU at the time of Brexit.

Today, the sentiment index in the business circles of the eurozone ZEW for February will be issued. The forecast is expected to decrease from 31.8 to 28.4. While the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to gain 16.0 points against 20.4 before. The producer price index of Germany in January may increase by 0.3% against growth of 0.2% in December. In the United Kingdom, the balance of production orders from the CBI for the current month is expected to decrease from 14 to 12. According to the United States, there is no data today but investors are waiting for the Fed's FOMC minutes from the last meeting on Wednesday. Tomorrow, the indicators of business activity ( PMI) of the eurozone will also come out, the forecasts for which are negative.

We are looking forward to deepening correction of the euro to 1.2295, and the decline of the British pound to 1.3840. On Thursday, the turn of the euro could possibly towards an upward direction, if the ECB's minutes of meeting noted that the regulator could complete the QE program in September.

AUD / USD.

Yesterday, the Australian dollar also barely changed in price, as the Chinese trading floors are closed until tomorrow for the New Year holidays, while yesterday in the US was the Presidents' Day. Today, the RBA has published the minutes since the last meeting and there have been no changes in the mood of the Central Bank. The problem is outlined in the standard: an increase in wages, inflation, and the reduction of reserve capacity in the labor market. Moreover, RBA Deputy head Michelle Bullock said that the peak demand for borrowers in the period of 2018-2022, can reduce consumer spending during this period and decrease the economic activity of medium-sized businesses.

In commodity markets, the trade came in mixed. As the oil added about 1%, the price of the iron ore did not change ($ 78.43 per tonne), copper lost 1.6%, and aluminum added 0.3%.

Tomorrow, Australia will release data on wage adjustments for the fourth quarter, with the forecast at 0.5%, as in the third quarter. The completed construction works for the same period showed forecast at 10.1% decline against the growth of 15.7% in the third quarter.

In general, we see internal pressure on the "Australian" currency similar to the euro. We are expecting for the price to fall in the range of 0.7835 / 55. There is a possible decrease to 0.7805.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.