FX.co ★ The Australian economy is in bad shape

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar rose by 62 points yesterday. Although, there was no reason for such a big increase. Looking ahead, it can be noted that yesterday's growth and today's increase, since the opening of the Pacific session, was almost close. The balance of the current account for the fourth quarter showed an increase in the negative balance from -11.0 billion dollars to -14.0 billion while expecta -12.3 billion dollars. The volume of retail sales for January added only 0.1% against the forecast of 0.4% and for December, it fell by 0.5%. The decision on the rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia was taken yesterday even negatively. In the first half of the day, the "Aussie" fell by 25 points. The rate, as expected, was maintained at 1.5%. The long-term forecast of the RBA for the economy in 3% met in the investor circles only irony.

This irony received real confirmation this morning: GDP in the 4th quarter fell from 2.9% y / y (revised from 2.8% y / y) to 2.4% y / y, with a 2.5% y / y. Quarterly growth was 0.4% against expectations of 0.5%. Capital expenditures for the quarter have contracted by 1.2%.

In case of even a slight increase in the US dollar index, we are waiting for the decline of the "Aussie" to 0.7690 and further to 0.7645.