EUR/USD drops like a rock after retesting the 1.21 psychological level. It's traded at 1.1928 level and it could hit the 1.19 downside obstacle soon if the USDX continues to increase. The pair fell below a former low signaling a larger corrective phase.
Personally, I believe that EUR/USD should drop below 1.19 if the US NFP, Unemployment Rate, and the Average Hourly Earnings will report positive figures. The Non-Farm Payrolls indicator is expected around 197K in February versus 49K in January.
EUR/USD On A Declining Path!
EUR/USD ignored the descending pitchfork's median line (ML), S1 (1.2006), and the 50% retracement level confirming high selling pressure. The next downside target, the downside obstacle, stands at the 1.19 psychological level.
Now is traded right below the S2 (1.1944) and under 1.1952 lower low. Closing below these levels and registering a new lower low could indicate a deeper drop ahead. EUR/USD is traded deep in the seller's territory, so you can still search for short opportunities.
The bearish bias remains intact as long as EUR/USD stays under the descending pitchfork's median line (ML).
The US data released today will shake the pair and may bring high volatility. So, you should be careful because poor economic figures could bring a new bullish momentum.
Closing below 1.1952 and registering a new lower low could represent a first selling signal. Also, coming back to test and retest the 50% retracement level or the median line (ML) could offer us a new selling opportunity if EUR/USD makes only false breakouts through these immediate upside obstacles.
1.19, the 61.8% retracement level, and the descending pitchfork's lower median line (LML) are seen as immediate downside targets. Technically, dropping and closing below 61.8% could announce a drop way below the LML, towards 1.18 and 1.17 levels.