FX.co ★ EUR/USD Hot Forecast for 21 June

The single currency leaves behind part of the recent weakness and pushes EUR/USD back to the proximity of the 1.1900 hurdle on Monday. Meanwhile, the US dollar is retreating amid a recovery in the risk sentiment. The US Treasury yields rebound on the back of the Fed's hawkish stance. ECB policymakers remain divided over PEPP extension.

Finally, EUR/USD shows some signs of life after bottoming out in the 1.1850 region earlier in the session. The FOMC triggered a deep pullback from levels around 1.2130 on Wednesday. The price appears to have met some decent support at the mid-1.1800s for the time being, as investors seem to be cashing out part of the recent strong gains in the dollar.

The move up in the pair comes in tandem with a positive tone in yields of the German 10-year benchmark bonds, which managed to return to about -0.20% after briefly flirting with multi-week lows near -0.30 earlier in the month. A more evident driver of the recent drop in EUR/USD, however, comes from the yield spread in the shorter end of the curve between the US and German bonds.

Friday's close below key Fibo support at 1.1918 (61.8% of 1.1704/1.2266) added to bearish signals generated on break of other important technical supports. The daily chart showing oversold conditions that suggests a corrective stage before bears again enter the market. The technical picture is negative and the US dollar is set to resume a rally.

Broken Fibo support at 1.1918 and daily cloud base at 1.1942 offer solid resistances which should ideally cap correction. Key obstacles at 1.1992/1.2000 are expected to cap extended upticks and offer better selling opportunities for a push towards 1.1704 (Mar 31 low). Only of the price returns and closes above the cloud top at 1.2053, this could subdue the bearish pressure.

Res: 1.1918, 1.1942, 1.1992, 1.2033.

Sup: 1.1833, 1.1795, 1.1737, 1.1704.