FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR / USD pair on June 4, 2019

EUR / USD pair

Investors did not even have time to decide how serious Trump's intentions are regarding tariffs for Mexican goods and how they could affect the US economy. Also on how the markets suffered another blow as the head of the FRB of St. Louis, James Bullard, said that the rate could be lowered "soon". At the same time, the indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector in May (ISM Manufacturing PMI) came out with deterioration at 52.1 against 52.8 in April. The construction costs for April showed a zero change against the forecast of 0.5% and the euro grew by 72 points, reaching the line of the price channel on the daily chart.

However, the rapid price increase from a technical standpoint increases the likelihood of an asset reversal. The Marlin oscillator gives the first signs of a reversal on the daily and H4 charts. Of course, such signs may portend only a correction, for example, to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.1216 in order to continue growth with new forces. Fixing the price above 1.1253 may extend the current movement to the next target at the April 17 maximum at 1.1324. The probabilities of the three approximate scenarios are as follows: completion of growth and reversal (25%), continued growth after correction (40%), and continued growth (35%).