FX.co ★ Overview of EUR/USD on June 11. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". US trade wars are once again on the front pages of newspapers and online publications.

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 93.393

On Monday, June 10, several important messages came from the odious US leader. First, markets have learned that the increase in duties on Mexican imports has been postponed indefinitely, as the parties have managed to reach agreement on the issue of illegal immigrants at the Mexican border. Secondly, a new piece of malware is made in China. According to Trump, China first refused to fulfill the previously agreed trade conditions, and now is dragging out the process of negotiations, perhaps even counting on the fact that Trump will not be elected President of the United States for a second term and with the new President can be negotiated on more favorable terms. Trump, who announced a new batch of trade duties for Chinese goods, doesn't like all of this, unless Chinese leader Xi Jinping doesn't meet him at the G-20 summit in Japan. For the US dollar, this information is certainly interesting, but, as before, does not have a particularly strong impact on it. If we recall how the dollar reacted to the trade war with China during its first round, it becomes clear that traders regard Washington's trade war as a positive moment for the United States, or at least not negative. The dollar was often strengthened by the escalation of the trade conflict with Beijing. Thus, the main opponent of the dollar now is the failed macroeconomic statistics, which could be caused by trade wars, in particular. And in the future, it may continue to upset the bears if trade wars continue. All this can lead to a serious drop in economic indicators, and the Fed can begin to reduce the key rate. All this can cause serious pressure on the US currency.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1292

S2 – 1.1261

S3 – 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1322

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1383

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair completed the correction round against the upward trend. Now, purchase of the euro/dollar with the targets at 1.1353 and 1.1383 remain relevant to a new reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi down.

It is recommended to sell the euro after the bears return the initiative to their hands and the euro/dollar pair will be fixed below the moving average line with the first targets at 1.1230 and 1.1200.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.