FX.co ★ A gift for Trump (a review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD on 06/28/2019)

Yesterday, the dollar trampled again on the spot, despite the fact that data on applications for unemployment benefits clearly favored its decline. The total number of applications increased by 32 thousand, while growth was projected by 2 thousand. In particular, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 10 thousand and not 3 thousand. Moreover, instead of decreasing per 1 thousand, the number of repeated applications has increased by 22 thousand. Therefore, there's no reason to celebrate. The results of GDP for the first quarter has been released, which confirmed all previous preliminary estimates, and showed an acceleration in economic growth from 3.0% to 3.2%. However, the fact of accelerating the pace of economic growth in America did not impress anyone because investors had long been ready for this. So the dollar had to somewhat weaken, but this did not happen.

Today, the final data on UK GDP for the first quarter was published, confirming the preliminary estimate, which showed an acceleration of economic growth from 1.4% to 1.8%. But as with the case of yesterday's GDP data for the United States, investors will disregard them, since they have long taken into account this fact in the quotes. Also, few people will be impressed by the preliminary data on inflation in Europe, as they have to show its immutability, which of course somewhat increases the likelihood of some easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. After all, inflation is seen at the level of 1.2%, which is significantly below the target level of 2.0%. But, in the United States, there have been data on personal income and expenses, which may increase by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Given the fact that in the previous month they increased by 0.5% and 0, 3%, respectively, the advanced growth in personal spending looks quite normal. Moreover, the increase in spending foreshadows the growth of retail sales and profits of large companies. So, the expectations of American statistics are rather positive, although the data itself is not so significant and is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market.

Thus, the single European currency will remain at the mark of 1.1350.

The pound will also steadily keep at 1.2650.