FX.co ★ EUR/USD. July 9th. Results of the day. Traders calmly and leisurely buy dollars on the eve of several Powell speeches this week

4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 47p - 44p - 22p - 81p - 28p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 44p (57p).

So, today is the first day of Powell's speech in Congress. On July 9, the Fed chairman gave a speech in Boston, and at the moment his speech has not touched on the topic of monetary policy. Powell's more significant speeches will take place tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, before the House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services and the Senate Banking Committee. It is expected that, in addition to the US economic outlook, as well as the current state of the country's economy and the Fed's monetary policy plans, the committees will be interested in the relationship between Trump and Powell, as the US president often criticizes the Fed and Powell in particular because of the first too frequent increases rates, and now - for the lack of its reduction. Thus, the Congress will clearly be interested in questions regarding the influence of Trump on the Fed, which, in theory, should not be. And, of course, the topic of monetary policy easing, which, in the opinion of most traders, can happen at the next meeting of the US regulator. In general, we do not expect Powell to openly announce that the Fed is preparing to lower the rate. Most likely, the wording will be low-key and ambiguous, like "we will respond to macroeconomic indicators", but this is not the question, but whether the foreign exchange market will see any hints on the rate increase or, conversely, the Fed's reluctance to reduce it. If yes, then we are waiting for serious movement in all pairs, including the US dollar. From a technical point of view, not too much of the downward movement continues, or rather, it is weak and uncertain. Bears hold the initiative in their hands, but are ready to begin to close dollar positions if Powell's rhetoric is too "dovish".

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move down. Thus, it is still recommended that you buy the dollar for the goal of a support level of 1.1165. Prerequisites for buying the euro is not available.

It is recommended to buy the euro/dollar no earlier than when the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line with the first goal being the Senkou Span B line. However, for this, bulls will need fundamental reasons.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.