FX.co ★ China unexpectedly surprised by strong manufacturing data

Robert Carnell, an ING chief economist, recommends paying attention to unexpectedly strong business performance in China. According to the report of Caixin Agency, business activity in the manufacturing sector of China in September rose to 51.4 points from 50.4 points in August, the growth rate can be called surprisingly strong. "In reality, the Caixin manufacturing index has been dominated by an unstable but upward trend since its fall in January this year, when the index fell to 48.3 points. New evidence suggests that more export-oriented private-sector firms, which make up the bulk of this study, actually see prospects, which explains the increase in the activity. Even the export order index, which so far remains in negative territory, seems to indicate that things are not going so badly," said Carnell.

At the same time, there is no certainty that the Caixin indicator, which determines the state of activity in the service sector, will also grow actively. Most analysts believe that the index is almost unchanged and will be 52.0 points in September (52.1 points in August). This seems like a reasonable guess. "If I had to guess, I would say this study should converge with the production counterpart, although the correlation between the two seems to be virtually nonexistent (0.09 since early 2017). Today's modest leap will not seem so unexpected, but the likelihood of a strong rise is very low."