FX.co ★ Trader's diary for EUR/USD on March 16, 2020. Update on the coronavirus. Is this a big crisis now or not yet?

The coronavirus will remain as the main topic until the situation begins to stabilize.

Update as of March 16:

Italy - 24,700 patients (an increase of more than 10% per day)

Spain - 7,800 patients

Germany - 5,800 patients

France - 4,500 patients

Iran - 14,000 patients

South Korea - 8,100 patients

US - 3,500 (more than + 10% per day).

Britain, Norway, Sweden. Holland - 1,000-1,200 patients.

There are quarantine measures all over Europe.

Is this a big crisis now or not yet?

A big crisis will occur when the economy is seriously affected by the pandemic (if several large institutions, banks or States collapse). JPM has already announced the possible default of several states. If there is a default in Italy, a chain reaction will occur. Nevertheless, although the probability of a major crisis is clearly higher than 50%, the situation at the moment is not a crisis yet (my estimate).

EUR/USD: Sell from 1.1053.