FX.co ★ AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 16, 2011

The AUD/USD is developing wave C of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. On smaller scale this wave includes A-B-C subwaves and corrective subwave 4 that is going against them - colored red in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0162-0.9819, 1.0112-0.9819.

Resistances:

- 0.9950 = .382 retracement
- 0.9966 = .50 ret
- 0.9990-1.0000 = confluence area of .50 and .618 retracements
- 1.0031 = .618 ret

If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0197-0.9972-1.0162, 1.0162-1.0050-1.0112.

Supports:

- 0.9819 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9798 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to look for shorts when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero (current prices), or when it gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current price level - this rougly corresponds to 0.9950-66 resistance area).

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.