Overview:
USD/CHF is trading in lower range. The rate is undermined by CHF demand on retreating EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses tempered by CHF-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastic is falling from overbought. USD/CHF: Consolidation from the Jan. 18 three-month high at 0.9389 risks further USD weakness to 0.921. The completion of a bear pennant continuation pattern on the 60-minute chart generated the 0.921 downside objective, although the bear wave is considered corrective in nature. Keeping support at 0.9275 intact, combined with a recovery above 0.9340, would prompt a strong rally back to 0.939 and then the 0.934 high.
Preference:
Sell below 0.9345 with targets at 0.927 and 0.921 in extension.
Support levels:
S1 - 0.9272 (Tuesday's low)
S2 - 0.9208 (Jan. 15 low)
S3 - 0.9115-0.9108 band (Jan. 14 low-Jan. 11 low)
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 0.9345. Above 0.9345 look for further upside with 0.939 and 0.941 as targets.
Resistance levels:
R1 - 0.9389 (Friday's high)
R2 - 0.941
R3 - 0.9434 (200-day moving average)
Technical comment:
As long as 0.9345 is resistance, a decline to 0.926 is likely.
