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FX.co ★ Analysis of EUR/USD on November 17. Creation of two vaccines against COVID-19 is not a reason to be happy yet

Analysis of EUR/USD on November 17. Creation of two vaccines against COVID-19 is not a reason to be happy yet

The wave pattern of the EUR/USD pair remains to be confusng. I am inclined to believe that the construction of the assumed wave 4 and the ascending wave 5 will be completed soon. However, it is also possible that the pair will continue to move within the three-wave structure. Therefore, a new wave may be formed from the next upward trend section. In any case, according to the current wave pattern, the pair is expected to increase next week.

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A wave structure on a smaller scale also indicates a possible completion of the downward trend that started on October 21. With the recent decline, the pair could have formed a C wave within the three-wave structure. It was mentioned in the previous analysis on the four-hour time frame that the pair can form a new rising three-wave pattern or continue the upward trend within the global wave 5. In any case, the current wave should signal a rise in the quotes above the peak of the previous A wave, that is, above the 19th mark.

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There has been a lot of interesting news recently — from political tension in the US to the news of the creation of two vaccines against COVID-19 at once. Thus, you can react to these messages in different ways. So far, the market is reacting in full accordance with the wave pattern. Mr. Trump lost the election, and this is already clear to everyone. Yet, he still continues to declare through social networks that it was he who won the election, and the results will be reviewed. And if he fails to achieve justice, then he will definitely run for president in 2024. However, markets ignore these statements from the president, and social networks regularly flag these messages as unreliable. Nonetheless, the still incumbent president remains, and has recently begun to hint at an escalating trade war with China, so the American media and political scientists immediately began to make warnings. Moreover, the deteriorating trade relations with Beijing will hit American farmers and consumers again.

At the same time, two vaccines against COVID-19 were created with a difference of just a few days. Pfizer's vaccine was 90% effective, while Moderna's vaccine was 95% effective. However, in the case of the second vaccine, not all clinical trials have been completed, while for the first one, transportation must take place at minus 70 degrees Celsius. As you can see, Pfizer's vaccine is extremely inconvenient, but Moderna's vaccine is not yet ready for mass use. Moreover, more than 70% of the entire population of the planet must be vaccinated so that the virus can be considered defeated. Therefore, an overall victory over the virus is not a goal that can be achieved in the next few months.

Conclusion and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has supposedly completed the formation of the three-wave downward trend section. At present, I would recommend buying the pair with goals located near 1.2010, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci, whenever the MACD indicator generates a buy signal, based on the formation of the C wave. The assumed B wave seems to have completed its formation.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
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