FX.co ★ Analysis of EUR/USD on November 19. EU inflation did not support the demand for the European currency

Analysis of EUR/USD on November 19. EU inflation did not support the demand for the European currency


The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument continues to look quite confusing. The current wave layout still allows the completion of the construction of the assumed global wave 4 and an ascending wave 5. But, the instrument is also likely to continue moving with three wave structures, thus, the construction of the assumed wave from the next upward trend section is currently underway. In any case, the instrument's quotes are expected to increase in the next week, according to the current markup.

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The wave marking on a smaller scale also indicates the end of the downward section of the trend that originates on October 21. At the moment, a new triple is being built up, or the upward trend section within the global wave 5 has resumed altogether, as I mentioned when analyzing the 24-hour timeframe. In any case, the current wave should lead to an increase in quotes above the peak of the previous wave a, which is above figure 19. A successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave b will require making adjustments and additions to the wave markup.

The demand for the European currency has slightly decreased over the past 24 hours, but it is still too soon to say that the next upward section of the trend has been completed. The instrument may make another leap up in the near future and update the maximum of the wave. Over the past few months, the instrument has been moving exclusively in corrective sets of waves. Thus, although the wave marking may become more complicated, the formations will still remain corrective. I can't say that there have been reasons to buy the US currency over the past 24 hours. The news background in America remains unchanged, new data and events failed to come and happen. Therefore, the pullback of quotes from the reached highs can be just a simple pullback, and not a movement "for any reason".

The European Union released yesterday a report on inflation in October, but it did not show any changes and remained at a fairly low level, -0.3% YoY. In America, there were no reports at all, and even the political sphere failed to please the markets with new information. Donald Trump, who lost the election based on the majority, continues to deny that he lost the election, but simultaneously not taking any serious steps to prove his case. Therefore, the whole thing is moving smoothly towards December 12, the day when the Electoral College will finally choose the US President between Joseph Biden and Donald Trump. Usually, the Electoral College of each state votes for the candidate who won the citizens' vote. However, there are precedents when one or another elector does not cast his vote in favor of the winner. Even this moment should not in theory affect the final alignment, and there are still those in America who believe that Trump still has a trump card up his sleeve and he will try to play it. But it is still unclear what this trump card is and whether it exists at all.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair has presumably completed the construction of a three-wave downward trend section. Therefore, I recommend buying the instrument with targets located near the 1.2010 mark, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal up, based on the construction of wave C. The assumed wave b has presumably completed its construction.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
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