The euro showed short-term speculative interest yesterday, which resulted in the opening of a sell order from the level of 1.1830. However, this certainly failed to bring the proper profit. A buy order, in turn, was opened from the level of 1.1860, which closed with a profit.
In terms of the economic calendar, there were no important statistics that were published in Europe, but in the United States, weekly data on the labor market was released regarding applications for unemployment benefits. Here, the volume of repeated applications continued to decline, which signals labor market recovery relative to the spring collapse.
The US dollar received local support at the time the statistics were published, but speculators realized a little later that the initial trades for benefits came out worse than the forecast. This resulted in speculative growth. The market reaction is highlighted in red and green ellipses on the trading chart.
- Repeated applications for benefits fell by 429 thousand, that is, from 6 801 thousand to 6 372 thousand.
- Initial applications turned out to be worse than forecast. It increased by 31 thousand, instead of the expected decline of 24 thousand.
What was happening on the trading chart?
The quote initially showed a downward interest from the level of 1.1850, with a local low of 1.1816, where positions for sale were opened. There was a stop in this local low, followed by a reversal, where the quote initially returned above the level of 1.1850 and then headed towards the November 18 high completely.
Considering the economic calendar, none of the statistical data from Europe and US are worthy of attention. Therefore, traders will pay attention to technical analysis, as well as information flow based on hot topics such as COVID-19, Brexit, and Trump-Biden prolonged political controversy.
For the technical analysis, it was observed that there was an immediate decline in the volume of buy positions, which led to a price reversal after the quote reached the level of 1.1890.
The natural basis associated with the level of 1.1890 has been looking for market participants for a long time. The nearest points of interaction between the price and the area were observed last November 17 and 18.
We can suggest that if the expectations associated with the natural basis of the level of 1.1890 coincide, the quote will decline to the limits of 1.1850-1.1825 again.
The pound failed to keep the previously set decline from the resistance level of 1.3300 yesterday. As a result, the quote found another pivot point in the coordinate area of 1.3200.
What was published on the economic calendar?
The same US labor market data, which initially favored the strengthening of the US dollar, and then sharply turned the rate from 13:30 UTC+00 was published. Just like in the EUR/USD pair, a similar reaction was observed, but with one difference, the dynamics was higher.
In addition to this news background, UK's volume of retail sales data was published, where a slowdown from 4.7% to 4.2% is expected. However, an acceleration was recorded from 4.6% to 5.8%.
From a technical analysis viewpoint, it is noteworthy that the growth during the Asian session led to another price approach to the resistance level of 1.3300, which affected the volume of buy positions in terms of reduction.
We can assume that if the price returns to the range of 1.3225/1.3235, it will positively affect sellers, which will increase their chances to break through the 1.3200 coordinate.
The price development along an upward course is limited by the resistance level of 1.3300. In order to change the schedule of forces, the quote needs to consolidate above the level of 1.3320 on a four-hour time frame.