The New Zealand Dollar paired with the US currency continues to update price highs. For the second day, the NZD/USD pair is testing the 70th figure. The last time NZD was at such price heights was almost two and a half years ago in June 2018. It is noteworthy that the pair is growing not only because of the greenback's weakness but because the New Zealander received indirect but quite powerful (and unexpected) support from the New Zealand government yesterday. All other fundamental factors are also positive for NZD/USD pair, starting from the intentions of the New Zealand regulator, ending with the situation with the Coronavirus in the country.
During yesterday's Asian session, the New Zealand Finance Minister announced that his department's plans to include the issue of housing price stability in the list of responsibilities of the New Zealand regulator. But, given the fact that the country's Central Bank is an independent body, the Ministry of Finance has so far only sent relevant proposals (recommendations) to the Central Bank. If the Reserve Bank agrees to this proposal, when determining the course of monetary policy in the future, it will have to take this factor into account.
It is worth recalling that not so long ago, in the spring of last year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand introduced a double mandate. Since then, the Central Bank has not only provided employment but is also responsible for price stability. Although the Finance Minister assured journalists that in this case we are not talking about changing the mandate, the de facto Central Bank will take into account the situation in the real estate market, which in turn does not contribute to a further reduction in the interest rate.
Actually, for this reason, the New Zealand Dollar soared up, having received another reason for the upward movement. For example, during the year of the pandemic, the cost per square meter in Auckland (the largest city of the island state) increased by 13%. New Zealand is considered a kind of safe haven being one of the few countries in the world that has defeated the coronavirus. Now, only isolated cases are registered, mainly during the quarantine period after arriving from abroad. This is also the reason why there is a stable high demand for housing in the country's largest cities, both from local buyers and from foreign investors. Virtually uncontrolled real estate price inflation has already become a political problem. The reduction in the interest rate amid the Coronavirus crisis has led to a decrease in the cost of borrowing and as a result, to another wave of demand for housing. Therefore, it is not surprising that the government wants to actually change the mandate of the RBNZ although the Bank formally denies this: now, when making decisions, the Central Bank will also take into account the situation on the real estate market.
According to many experts, the likely consequence of such innovations may be an increase in the RBNZ interest rate at the beginning of next year. Although it is impossible to say this with certainty, it is worth recalling that a few months ago, the market seriously discussed the probability of a rate cut in the negative area. At the moment, this option can be excluded from the list of probable ones. At a minimum, the rate will remain at the current level, and at a maximum, it will be increased in the first half of 2021.
This fundamental background allows buyers of the NZD/USD pair to open new price horizons. Other fundamental factors also speak in favor of an upward movement. These include the growth of the dairy index, the growth of Chinese data, and, in the end, the victory over the Coronavirus. All this suggests that the New Zealand Dollar has not exhausted its potential, which means that any corrective pullback can be used to open longs.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the situation is as follows. On all higher timeframes (including the monthly chart). The pair is on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and above all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator (except MN). The upper boundary of the Kumo cloud, which corresponds to 0.7060, is the resistance level (the goal of the upward movement).