GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes fell to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3458) on January 11. The pair's rebound from this level worked in favor of the British currency and the beginning of a new growth process in the direction of the downward trend line, which characterizes the current mood of traders as "bearish". Thus, the rebound of the pair from this line will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the level of 61.8%. According to the latest research conducted by the ZEW Institute, the UK has lost first place in the ranking of attractiveness for doing business. Its place was taken by the United States. The reason for this is called Brexit. But still, Britain continues to hold second place in the rating, that is, it is more attractive compared to other countries. Thus, a drop in the ranking can't be considered bad news. But the situation with COVID-2019 continues to worsen. The chief medical officer of England, Chris Witty, believes that in the coming weeks the situation will only get worse, and the health system is already loaded as much as possible. According to Vitti, there are now about 30,000 coronavirus patients in hospitals, almost twice as many as during the first wave of the pandemic. On January 9, a thousand deaths per day were recorded in the UK for the first time since the outbreak of the epidemic. The average daily number of new cases is now 60-70 thousand.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481) and rebounded from it. Thus, there was a reversal in favor of the British, and new growth began in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701). However, the consolidation of quotes under the level of 100.0% (1.3481) will again work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3291).
GBP/USD - Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Thus, the growth process can be resumed at any time in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). Only the closing of the pair below the level of 100.0% will work in favor of a further fall in quotes.
GBP/USD - Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no important economic reports in the UK and the US on Monday. There was no economic background.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
On January 12, the calendars of the UK and the USA are empty, so the background information will also be absent.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from January 5 showed the same minimal activity of major players as in the case of the euro currency. During the New Year's week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 1,028 long contracts and 1,111 short contracts. That is, almost an equal number. Thus, I cannot conclude that during the reporting week, the mood of speculators became more "bullish" or more "bearish". Judging by the total number of open contracts in this category, the mood remains more "bullish". However, on December 1, the situation was exactly the opposite, and the pound sterling was growing even then. In general, there are no strong changes in the mood of major players.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to buy the British dollar when the pair rebounds from the level of 100.0% (1.3481) on the 4-hour chart with the aim of the trend line on the hourly chart. Thus, now these positions can be held. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling when quotes bounce off the trend line on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3522 and 1.3458.
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.