EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair continued to fall for most of the day on January 11. The rebound of quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2131) allowed to start a small increase, which has already been completed, and the process of falling resumed in the direction of the same level. Closing the pair's exchange rate below the corrective level of 100.0% will increase the probability of a further fall towards the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2072). In America, meanwhile, the "political circus" that Donald Trump provoked continues. Yesterday, representatives of the Democratic Party in the lower house presented a resolution on the impeachment of Donald Trump. Probably today or tomorrow, the lower house will vote for the adoption of the impeachment of the president on three occasions. The first is Trump's repeated unsubstantiated claims that he won the election, and only the falsifications of the Democrats deprived him of victory. The second was an appeal on January 6 via social networks to his supporters to "go to the Capitol", which led to mass riots and several deaths. The third was a conversation with the Secretary of State of Georgia, in which Trump called for finding the necessary votes to win the state. Also, the Democrats initiated a unilateral appeal to Vice President Mike Pence calling for the removal of Donald Trump from power. If Mike Pence refuses to enforce the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, Democrats will push for the president's impeachment in Congress. We used to count the days until the election, now we count the days until the end of Trump's presidential term. 8 days left.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under the upward trend line. Thus, the mood of most traders changed to "bearish", and a further drop in quotes became more likely. It can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Emerging divergences are not observed today. Everything suggests that the US currency will rise in price in the coming weeks.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair began the process of returning to the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2079). The pair's rebound from this level will work in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 423.6% (1.2496).
EUR/USD - Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On January 11, there were no economic reports in the European Union and America. Nevertheless, the US currency is showing growth against the background of the events that are unfolding now in US government circles.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On January 12, the US and EU news calendars are empty. Thus, the information background will be absent today. But new data from the US Congress and the White House are possible.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The activity of major players in the New Year's week was very weak. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, according to the latest COT report of January 5, opened 2,072 long contracts and 3,078 short contracts. That is, approximately the same amount. The same applies to the "Commercial" category of traders and the total number of open long and short contracts. First, these figures are very low, and second, without a serious bias in any direction. Simply put, speculators in the New Year rested more and celebrated than made transactions in the foreign exchange market. Thus, there are no special changes following the results of the next week. The mood of traders remains "bullish". A couple of months ago, the beginnings of a new downward trend appeared, however, the weakness of the dollar did not allow this option to be realized.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders:
On Tuesday, I recommend selling the euro currency with a target of 1.2072 on the hourly chart, if the close is made under the level of 100.0% (1.2131). New purchases of the pair can be opened with targets of 1.2240 and 1.2266 when closing quotes above the trend line on the hourly chart.
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.