FX.co ★ AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - April 18, 2011

AUD/USD is developing potential wave 5 of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. To confirm wave 5 break above 1.0580 is needed. On smaller timeframes this wave consists of A-B-C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing and consists of still smaller waves - A-B and C that is developing (colored red in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9709-1.0313-1.0204 (waves 1-2), 1.0204-1.0580-1.0389 (waves 3-4), 1.0389-1.0538-1.0457, 1.0457-1.0558-1.0510.

Resistances:

- 1.0572-77 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP), already fulfilled
- 1.0606-11 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
- 1.0621 = COP
- 1.0673 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0698 = XOP

If the price reverses down the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0457-1.0578, 1.0389-1.0578, 1.0204-1.0580.

Supports:

- 1.0518 = .50 retracement
- 1.0506-03 = confluence area of .618 and .382 retracements
- 1.0484 = .50 ret
- 1.0461 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is up (wave of a larger degree is now up), it's preferable to look for longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-25 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (30-40 pips below the current prices - this roughly corresponds to 1.0532 Fib support).

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.