FX.co ★ USD/CAD: Caution

Overview:
USD/CAD is to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting seven-month high of 1.0207 Thursday. Underpinned by positive USD sentiment, increased risk aversion, weak commodity & oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $2.38 Thursday at $92.84/bbl), worries over spillover effect on Canada from the U.S. $1.2 trillion automatic spending cuts set to kick in March 1. But USD/CAD gains tempered by positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD & stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and rising.
Data focus:
13.30 GMT Canada December retail sales, January CPI.

Preference:
Buy above 1.0155 with targets at 1.0205 and 1.0225 in extension.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 1.0207 (Thursday's high)
R2 - 1.0225
R3 - 1.0249 (July 12 high) and 1.0363 (June 28 high).
Alternative scenario:
Sell below 1.0155. Below 1.0155 look for further downside with 1.014 and 1.0105 as targets.
Support Levels:
S1 - 1.014
S2 - 1.0111-1.0103 band (Wednesday's low-Tuesday's low)
S3 - 1.0058 (Monday's low)
Technical Comment:
The pair is challenging its new support, the RSI is reversing up from its oversold area.