FX.co ★ Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on February 15, 2021

As already noted in today's article on the euro/dollar, at the auction on February 8-12, the US dollar suffered losses against all major competitors. The British pound was no exception and showed the most impressive growth against the US currency. As noted in today's previous review, the positive sentiment of market participants, the growth of stock indices, as well as the reassessment of the recovery of the world's largest economy were the main factors in the weakening of the "American". Another important global topic is the universal vaccination of the population of countries against the COVID-19 pandemic. And it is in this aspect that things are much better in the UK than in other countries, for example, in the euro area. Far from the last role in the successful, at the moment, on the scale of the campaign to vaccinate the British is played by the Cabinet of Ministers, headed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. I am usually very skeptical about this political figure, but in the case of vaccination, he shows himself as a real leader of the nation, and this factor cannot be overlooked. Well, in order not to over-praise Johnson, let's now look at the charts of the GBP/USD currency pair to try to predict its further direction. Given the trading week that closed on Friday, let's start with the corresponding timeframe.

Weekly

After the previous three weeks of unsuccessful attempts to break through the strong resistance of sellers in the area of 1.3757, at the auction of the last five days, the bulls for the pound finally managed to do this. Moreover, the weekly session ended at 1.3843, which is higher than the price zone of the nearest possible resistance of 1.3800-1.3820. Although, in principle, everything is quite logical. As a rule, after long and unsuccessful attempts to break through a particular level, when it does breakthrough, the price flies above the designated nearest targets. This is a normal phenomenon that can be observed quite often in the market. Now, the GBP/USD bulls need to keep the quote not only above 1.3800 but also update the previous highs at 1.3865. By the way, if memory serves, this is a fairly strong technical level, and it will not be easy to overcome it. If the bulls on the pound manage to pass 1.3865, their next target will be the area of 1.3900-1.3930. In the case of an alternative downward scenario and the closing of the current weekly trading under the level of 1.3757, its breakdown will have to be recognized as false and prepare for the subsequent decline of the pound/dollar pair.

Daily

The daily chart shows even more clearly the role that the level of 1.3865 plays in the current situation. As you can see, candles with longer upper shadows have already begun to appear under this mark, which indicated that the strength of buyers is melting. However, Friday's candle showed that it is too early to draw these conclusions. The daily chart shows a clear range, which is represented by two very strong and significant levels: the broken resistance, and now the support of 1.3757 and the resistance of sellers at 1.3865. In my opinion, depending on which direction the price will go out of this range, its subsequent direction will depend. I am more inclined to the bullish scenario, and I expect to look for options for buying the "British" after the true breakdown of 1.3865, on a rollback to this level. At the same time, I recommend setting goals in the area of 1.3900-1.3930. If the pair returns under the broken resistance level of 1.3757 and gains a foothold under it, on a pullback to this mark, it is worth considering selling GBP/USD with targets in the area of 1.3720-1.3690. Tomorrow we will look at the situation that is happening on smaller timeframes, and if necessary, we will make adjustments to this forecast.