The euro decided to continue rising. This morning, on the daily chart, the price confirmed the consolidation above the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator established itself in the zone of positive values. It seems that the euro is ready to overcome the January 6 high, to reach the target level of 1.2385 and even go higher. But there are pitfalls.
The trading volumes on the 18th and 19th were the lowest since the beginning of the year (with the exception of February 15, when the US was celebrating a national holiday), the market is growing at the expense of small investors, while large ones left it in the last stage on February 1-4. A similar situation is observed in the stock market, which is growing exclusively on small private speculators, as evidenced by the increased growth of "hype securities" and their crushing crashes. We wrote about the imminent collapse of the stock market in our review dated February 16, and it looks like the same situation is brewing in the foreign exchange market.
The price divergence has long formed with a number of oscillators on the weekly chart:
We conclude that the euro's speculative growth will end soon. But it is impossible to determine exactly when this will happen. It is possible that it might be tomorrow, February 23rd, since today falls exactly on the 8th line of the Fibonacci time zone:
Also, this technical tool allows a delay of several candles. During this time, the price may rise to the target level 1.2190 or even to 1.2272. Putting at the beginning of the Fibonacci time grid not the peak from January 6, but another extreme, we will get another reversal day, then the euro's growth can be higher, even in the range of 1.2272-1.2310. Well, if the price rises to 1.2385, then there will be a double divergence on the weekly chart by oscillators.
But while the euro is growing. We have nothing to do but to carefully wait for the price to reach the first target level of 1.2190. The price is above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is in the growth zone. If the price moves under the MACD line, it will mean that the euro has abandoned the 1.2190 target and a passing attack on the 1.2023 support, overcoming which already opens the door to the 1.1870-1.1915 target range. Here we note that the MACD lines on the daily and four-hour charts coincide at the price of 1.2100, which enhances the significance of this level.