To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to:
In the morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.4119, from which I recommended opening long positions. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. The upward movement from the level of 1.4119 was quite good, however, I was waiting for the confirmation of the signal with a false breakdown or at least a test of the level of 1.4119. Thus, I was forced to miss this signal. All attention is now shifted to the resistance of 1.4186, from which I will continue to make a decision.
The breakdown and test of this level from top to bottom will lead to the formation of a new signal to open long positions to update 1.4241, where I recommend fixing the profits. A further target will be a maximum of 1.4324. In the scenario of lack of activity on the part of buyers and the return of the pair to the support area of 1.4119, I recommend opening long positions after the formation of a false breakout. You can buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from a larger low in the area of 1.4055, to which we can quickly collapse if good fundamental data on the US economy is released.
To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need to:
The bears' initial task is to regain control of the support of 1.4119, which they failed to do in the first half of the day. However, it will be quite difficult to achieve a decline under this level, since the pair is in an upward trend. A consolidation below 1.4119 and a test of this area on the reverse side form a signal to open short positions to reduce the pair to the area of 1.4055, where I recommend taking the profits. The longer-range target will be a minimum of 1.3983. In the scenario of GBP/USD growth in the second half of the day, it is best not to rush to sell but to wait for the formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.4186. But I recommend opening short positions immediately for a rebound only from the maximum of 1.4241, based on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day.
Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for February 16 recorded a reduction in long and short commercial positions. Despite this, the bulls break through to new highs each time, taking advantage of the good news on vaccination in the UK and good fundamental data indicating economic growth even during the lockdown period. The news that in March this year, the UK will resort to easing quarantine measures, will continue to fuel interest in the British pound from investors. Long non-commercial positions fell only to the level of 60,269 from the level of 60,513. At the same time, the short non-profit declined from the level of 39,395 to 38,102, which kept the bullish sentiment in the market. As a result, the non-profit net position rose to 22,167 from 21,118 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3914 against 1.3745. Any downward corrections with an instant buy-off of the British pound once again prove the presence of major players in the market. The constant updating of local highs and consolidation on them will continue to contribute to the bullish trend that we have been observing since the beginning of February this year.
Signals of indicators:
Trading is above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a continuation of the bull market in the short term.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.4186 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pair. In case the pound falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.4100.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.