Looking at the H4 chart, the wave pattern is still quite clear and understandable. The structure of waves a-b-c-d-e looks almost done. The alternative wave pattern, which assumes a - b - c structure, seems to be fully equipped as well. Anyhow, the formation of at least a three-wave ascending structure can be expected. So far, it is quite hard to understand how strong and extended the new structure will turn out to be. The demand for the Euro currency is growing again recently, so everything will depend on how long it persists. We do not consider the option of complicating the downward trend, which begins on January 6. However, if the instrument makes a successful attempt to break the low of March 31, this may require adjustments to the current wave marking.
On another note, the news background for the EUR/USD pair is extremely controversial. On the one hand, there was not really a single important report or event when this week began, while on the other, several analysts continue to pay attention to the fact that the pace of economic recovery in the US is much higher compared to the EU. For the European currency, this is quite bad news, which absolutely does not correspond to the current wave pattern that implies a further increase in the euro quotes. Moreover, the third wave of coronavirus has also begun in the European Union. Some countries have already imposed strict restrictions, while some are on the verge of this step. It should also be recalled that the issues with vaccination in the EU have also not gone away in the last few weeks.
The EU government is heavily criticized due to the low vaccination rates, at least compared to the US, Israel or the UK. Recently, there have been problems with vaccines again. Not only are they not enough to ensure a high rate of vaccination of the population, but also the vaccine manufacturer AstraZeneca is constantly banned for use, then studied, then not recommended. It's all about the same blood clots that occurred after the vaccine was used in about 40-50 people across the EU, including the UK. Thus, some countries have suspended vaccination with this drug, and some do not recommend it to people under 60 years of age. However, all this only slows down the overall process even more. In addition, there are problems with the Recovery Fund, which can not be formed and distributed among all EU members, which greatly hinders the process of recovery of the European economy again.
Based on the analysis, a new upward wave can be expected to be formed, possibly the first one as part of a new upward trend section. There is no reason to talk about the targets yet, as a new trend area is just emerging. It will be necessary to see whether a new upward wave will develop. So far, it is suggested to buy the instrument for each MACD upward signal.
The wave pattern of the upward trend section is almost done. In this case, the five-wave form is not going to get complicated yet. But the section of the trend, which sharply started forming after it, takes a corrective, but quite understandable form. This indicated section also looks quite complete.