Yesterday's economic calendar involved several important publications, where it was possible to observe the characteristic reaction of the market, but it was not without speculators.
Here's the details of the economic calendar for April 7.
The first one to report in terms of statistical indicators is Europe, which published its PMI data for March (Purchasing Managers Index)
The markit service sector PMI rose more than the forecast: previous: 45.7p. ---> forecast: 48.8p. ---> actual: 49.6p.
What is markit service sector index? This is the index published by Markit Economics, which tracks the activity of purchasing managers in the services sector and reflects the changing business conditions in the industry. The services PMI is an important indicator of the health of the European economy. So when the index rises, it is considered a positive signal for the euro.
The composite index of business activity in the EU manufacturing sector (Markit) shows strong growth from 52.5 points to 53.2 points, which is significantly better than expected. The indicator was predicted to remain unchanged at 52.5 p.
It should be noted that the composite index is produced by Markit Economics and is based on a survey of 300 service executives and 300 manufacturing executives. The growth of the index in the long term gives rise to the growth of the euro.
The value of the Euro currency rose as a reaction to the data.
The United Kingdom published a similar indicator for the index of business activity in the services sector, where there was growth from 49.5 points to 56.3 points, although an even stronger change in the index was expected. In any case, the market reacted to the news with an increase in the pound's value.
Analysis of trading charts from April 7
The Euro currency (EUR/USD) was able to show local activity yesterday, where the quote initially broke through a narrow range of 1.1864/1.1881 in an upward direction, reaching the coordinates 1.1914. After that, it returned to the levels of the beginning of the trading day during the US trading session, as if nothing was on the market.
The trading recommendation yesterday took into account possible activity surge, so we considered working on a breakdown of a particular border of the established range of 1.1864/1.1881. The resulting profit from the trading recommendation could be about 30 points, which is $ 30 with a transaction volume of 1 Instalot.
Meanwhile, the British currency (GBP/USD) continued to moved in a downward direction during the past day, with a total of about 90 points of decline.
The trading recommendation yesterday took into account sellers' desire to continue the downward movement of the pound. As a result, the quote moved downwards the forecasted area of 1.3700, where the rebound eventually emerged.
Trading recommendation for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 8
Today, Europe will release its data on producer prices, where they are projected to grow by 1.4% in February, which is considered a very strong change.
This indicator is prepared by the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) and reflects the inflation rate for goods sold or produced in the euro region. The growth of the index is considered positive, but the fear of investors caused by a very strong increase in inflation can lead to a backlash in the market.
EU 9:00 Universal time - data on producer prices
During the American trading session, the United States will publish its weekly data on claims for unemployment benefits. Their volume is expected to be reduced.
- Volume of initial applications for benefits may be reduced from 719 thousand to 680 thousand.
- Volume of repeated applications for benefits may be reduced from 3 794 thousand to 3 650 thousand.
The data on benefit claims determine the state of the labor market in the US. If we see an increase in the number of applications, this indicates the weakness of the labor market, which negatively affects the US dollar, while in contrast, a decline in the number of applications indicates the recovery of the labor market and the growth of the US dollar.
USA 12:30 Universal time - data on applications for unemployment benefits.
Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, the accumulation process in the borders of 1.1860/1.1885 was observed during the Asian session, which eventually led to a local stretch of the upper border during the start of the European session.
Based on the recent price fluctuations, traders should pay attention to the price coordinates of 1.1860 and 1.1915, since the next move in the market will be clear as to which one will be broken first.
Let's specify it in trading signals:
- Buy positions will be considered if the price is kept above the level of 1.1915 in the direction of 1.1950-1.2000
- Sell positions will be considered if the price is kept below the level of 1.1860 in the direction of 1.1820.
As for the trading chart of GBP/USD, one can see the price rebound from the area of the variable pivot point of 1.3700, with about 40 points of growth during the Asian session.
However, the downward interest is still taking place in the market, so the current pullback can be regarded by traders as a regrouping of trading forces before the pound's next decline.
To be able to prolong the correctional course from the high of the mid-term trend, it is necessary for the quote to keep below the level of 1.3700, and break through the local low of 1.3669 from March 25.