FX.co ★ Analysis of GBP/USD on April 12. UK exports to EU countries continue to decline in 2021

Analysis of GBP/USD on April 12. UK exports to EU countries continue to decline in 2021

Analysis of GBP/USD on April 12. UK exports to EU countries continue to decline in 2021

The wave pattern for the Pound/Dollar instrument looks more convincing after making adjustments, but there are still several different scenarios for the development of events. The first option: the construction of a descending set of waves, impulsive, continues now. Wave 3 or c can take a five-wave form. The second option: the instrument is within the framework of constructing the structure a-b-c-d-e and at this time the construction of the last wave e continues (or even has already been completed). The third option: the descending part of the trend took a three-wave form and ended on March 24. The fourth option: the construction of the horizontal trend section has begun. Since there is no unambiguous answer to the question of which of the options will eventually be implemented, I propose to be wary of any deals now. I have already said many times that wave counting should be simple and understandable to make money on it. If the wave counting allows for half a dozen different options, then it is likely to bring losses. The unsuccessful attempt to break the low of the assumed wave 1 at 3 or c or wave c is now very important. The quotes began to move away from the lows reached.

The news background for the Pound/Dollar instrument is currently weak. There are many news and interesting and important events, but I cannot conclude that any of them affect the sterling or the dollar. For example, the latest news suggests that riots broke out in Ireland due to the displeasure of the population with the implementation of the Northern Ireland border protocol, which is part of the Brexit agreement. Also, British exporters continue to report declining sales to European countries. According to the British Chamber of Commerce, about 41% of British companies have made such statements. Companies massively complain about bureaucracy, a huge amount of documents and certificates to send their goods across the UK border to the EU countries. Economists believe these are structural problems, which can have long-term negative effects if not addressed. Thus, the demand for the sterling increased on Monday, but the news background, rather, should have contributed to its decline. There were no economic reports at all, neither in Britain nor in the United States. Based on the foregoing, I believe that the situation is now very confusing, when both the wave counting leaves too many questions unanswered, and the news background.

At this time, the wave pattern is too confusing. I recommend waiting for its clarification so that at least a couple of possible options are eliminated, making it clear in which direction the movement will develop. A failed breakout of the April 12 low indicates that the markets are ready for an upward wave. This can be used. But what will this upward wave be? As part of a new upward trend? As part of a downward trend? Or as part of a horizontal one? It is now completely unclear.

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Analysis of GBP/USD on April 12. UK exports to EU countries continue to decline in 2021

The part of the trend, originating on September 23, has taken on a five-wave fully completed form. Thus, this section of the trend is presumably completed, and the decline in quotes may resume as part of the construction of a new downward trend, the first two waves of which have already completed their construction.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
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