FX.co ★ Analysis for GBP/USD, April 13. UK statistics turn out to be neutral, while US ones cause drop in USD

After certain adjustments, the wave pattern looks clear for the pound/dollar pair. Yet, there are still several different scenarios. The first one suggests the appearance of a descending set of waves. Wave 3 or c can take a five-wave form. The second scenario implies that the pair will be located within the development of the a-b-c-d-e structure and at this time the formation of the last e wave is still developing (or even already completed). According to the third scenario, the downward section of the trend took a three-wave form and ended on March 24. The fourth one conjectures that the construction of a horizontal section of the trend has begun. As there is no clear answer to the question of what scenario is currently being implemented, it is recommended to open any position with caution. Yesterday, quite important reports were also unveiled, which had an impact on market sentiment, triggering adjustments in the current wave markup. The pound/dollar pair was trading mixed. On the large-scale charts, the same wave pattern remained.

The economic calendar for the pound/dollar pair has been almost empty in recent days. However, the UK and the US released significant economic reports today that affected the market. The UK published GDP data, which was slightly worse than the expectations. The figure came in at 0.4% on a monthly basis. Over the three-month period, the reading was slightly better, amounting to -1.6%. Thus, the data can hardly be called positive. Industrial production in February increased by 1.0% on a monthly basis which was better than expected but decreased by 3.5% year-on-year. The visible trade balance was significantly higher than the forecast value of £16.4 billion. So, in general, the UK economic data is rather controversial. The pound sterling added about 40 pips after its release. By midday, it lost its early gains. After the release of US inflation, the US dollar advanced by 35 pips and then fell by 60. Thus, throughout the day, the pound/dollar pair was trading mixed. Notably, for the first two days of the week, the economic calendar was completely empty. Therefore, we can only hope that in the coming weeks. the overall trend will be more or less clear. It will help to decide which wave we should continue to pay attention to.

Currently, the wave pattern is ambiguous. It is recommended to refrain from trading until at least a couple of possible scenarios are canceled. The unsuccessful attempt to break the low of April 12 indicates that the bullish trend is gaining momentum. What will this upward wave be? Being a part of a new uptrend, as part of a downtrend, as part of a horizontal trend, its further formation is now unclear.

The section of the trend, which originates on September 23, took a five-wave form. Thus, this section of the trend is presumably completed. The decline in quotas may resume as part of the construction of a new downward section of the trend. Its first two waves have already completed their formation. At the same time, the entire trend can be transformed into more complex structures.