On the H4 chart, the wave pattern is still completely understandable and has not undergone any changes in recent days. Thus, it can be concluded that the first wave of a new upward trend section continues to form. Earlier, we assumed that the target is around the 21st mark for this first wave, but an unsuccessful attempt to break the 38.2% Fibonacci level indicates a possible departure of quotes from the reached highs. It could be a simple pullback, or it could be wave 2 or b. In any case, a correctional wave should be built; without it, the part of the upward trend will not develop. Thus, if a correction wave has now begun forming, then its targets are located around the 19th figure. It will be possible to consider new purchases of the instrument after this wave is completed. If a simple pullback is taking place now, then a successful attempt to break through the 38.2% level will signal the readiness of the markets to buy the euro.
The news background for the EUR/USD pair on Monday and Tuesday was not just weak, it was absent. Nevertheless, the markets' activity was high, and the construction of the upward wave continued. Thus, the markets now absolutely do not care whether there is a news background or economic reports or there are none at the moment. Markets continue to move the instrument based on non-news factors. Therefore, wave analysis is now quite important. In fact, the wave pattern is almost clear, so it is much more convenient to trade on it than to try to predict what next news the markets will want to play back.
On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in the European Union and the United States, the news and events calendar is completely empty. There are not even minor events. However, this does not matter anyway, since the markets remain relatively active even without news. In this case, nothing will change at all in the news plan, as even more general topics do not provide any information to the markets right now. There are no new reports on the rate of vaccination in the EU or on the AstraZeneca and J & J vaccines. At the same time, Christine Lagarde or Jerome Powell will not make any appearances, or at least Ursula von der Leyen or Janet Yellen. Is this for the better? Fewer factors will affect the current wave pattern.
Based on the analysis, the formation of the upward trend is still expected. Since its first wave looks already quite complete, and the attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level was unsuccessful, the construction of the second wave could begin now. If this is true, then it is not recommended to rush on opening new purchases. It is better to wait until this wave is completed. The internal wave structure of wave 1 or a is not noticeable, and the five waves inside it are not yet seen.
The wave pattern of the upward trend section still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to be complex yet. However, the part of the trend, which started forming immediately after it, takes a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend seems to be done as well.