The wave counting on the 4-hour chart still does not require any clarifications or additions. I continue to conclude that the instrument is now in the process of building a new upward trend. Since the demand for the euro has decreased during the day, the upward wave has presumably completed its construction. The second unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level again suggests that the market is ready to build a correctional wave 2 or b. Thus, the instrument may resume an increase in quotes within wave 3 or c after the completion of a corrective wave, the targets of which are located near the 19th figure or slightly below.
There was no news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Nevertheless, the instrument did not stand still and continued to gradually build an upward wave. Markets' hopes were associated with today's meeting of the European Central Bank. However, all the main parameters of monetary policy remained predictably unchanged. The monetary policy report said that interest rates would remain at their current level or even lower until inflation steadily approaches the 2% level. And the wording "or below" was supposed to make the markets scared. It turns out that the ECB fully admits a new cut in the key rate. Approximately the same rhetoric was heard about the PEPP, an emergency asset purchase program to counter the economic crisis caused by the pandemic. The ECB's governing council decided that the asset purchase will continue until the end of March 2022 or until the regulator decides that the crisis is over. The final statement also said that the central bank will continue to buy assets at a much faster pace than in the first quarter of 2021, and other asset purchase programs, such as APP, worth €20 billion monthly, will also continue. The TLTRO program will continue to support the banking sector, and the board of directors will be ready to make the necessary changes in monetary policy, if necessary. Thus, in general, the ECB's rhetoric can be characterized as "moderately dovish." In any case, there were no hints of tightening, therefore, the markets had no reason for new purchases of the euro. With some delay, the demand for the European currency nevertheless decreased and the instrument began to fall.
Based on the analysis, I still expect the construction of an upward trend. Since its first wave looks already quite complete, and the attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level was unsuccessful, the construction of the second wave could begin now. If this is true, then I do not recommend rushing to open new purchases. Better to wait until this wave is completed. A successful attempt to break the 1.2062 mark may indicate that the markets are ready for a further rise in the instrument.
The wave counting of the upward trend is still quite complete, in a five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. But the part of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend also looks quite complete.