FX.co ★ Analysis of EUR/USD on May 11, 2021. Investor sentiment in the European Union improved in May

The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still completely understandable and does not require any additions. The supposed wave 2 as part of the new upward trend is completed, as the price has broken the previous peak of wave 1. Thus, at this time, the instrument is in the stage of building wave 3 of a new upward trend section. A successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2172 will indicate that the markets are ready for further purchases of the instrument with targets located near the level of 1.2350. Given the size of the assumed wave 1, I can assume that wave 3, and the entire upward trend may turn out to be very extended, which makes it possible for the European currency to count on a much stronger rise than 1.2350.

The first working day of the new week was rather boring both in the news and in the market. The instrument was traded rather inactively and was unable to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level several times. The most interesting event of the day was the speech of US President Joe Biden, who focused on the achievements of his team in the first few months of his presidency. According to Biden, under no other president, the first 3.5 months did not end with an increase in jobs by 1.5 million. However, Biden forgot to mention that the US economy is now simply recovering from a severe crisis and this 1.5 million job growth was preceded by a much stronger fall, which simply fell on the era of the previous president, Donald Trump. But nonetheless. All the same, this speech did not bring any benefit to the American currency. The US dollar continues to lose demand and may continue to do so this week.

On Tuesday, there was practically no news background at all, so during the day, the instrument was also not traded very actively. But tomorrow there will be little news regarding the report on inflation in the United States for April, industrial production in the European Union for March, and economic forecast from the European Commission. In fact, the entire list of the most important news for tomorrow looks like this: inflation in the United States. The forecast from the European Commission is interesting, but no more. Industrial production has been of no importance to markets lately. But inflation in America threatens to accelerate to 3.6%-3.8% YoY. And this is after growth last month to 2.6% YoY. But, many analysts are in no hurry to rejoice over this, since last April many states introduced strict quarantines and lockdowns and virtually stopped any economic activity. Therefore, the rise in prices by 3.6% in relation to that month does not say anything. It is necessary that high inflation persists for a long period of time, then it will be possible to draw appropriate conclusions and expect any action from the Fed.

Based on the analysis, I still expect the construction of an upward trend. At this time, the construction of corrective wave 2 or b could already be completed. Thus, I now recommend to buy the instrument with targets located near the 23rd figure and above, counting on the formation of a wave of 3 or c. There are no reasons to revise the current wave counting yet.

The wave counting of the upward trend section is still quite complete, in a five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. But the part of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, took on a corrective and fully completed form. If the current wave counting is correct, then the construction of a new upward trend section has now begun and its two first waves have recently been completed.