FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on May 12, 2021

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro once again reached the resistance of 1.2177 as the day's high, then it retreated, and so it continues to fall in today's Asian session. Divergence on the daily scale is getting stronger.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that employment data was caught in situational volatility due to the reluctance of many citizens to seek work due to good unemployment benefits. At the same time, Joe Biden proposed to urgently adjust the issuance of benefits - not to issue them to those who evade the proposed suitable job. Be that as it may, but so far from the disappointing report on labor, we see one effect - a fall in the stock market. Yesterday, the S&P 500 entered the range of April 12-13. Losses since Monday were 1.91%.

A double top with divergence is forming on the 4-hour timeline. Falling under the MACD line, below 1.2100, opens the way to the target level of 1.1986. The descending scenario becomes the main one. The probability of overcoming 1.2177 is 25-30%. In this case, the target is around 1.2243.