FX.co ★ Analysis of GBP/USD on May 12, 2021. Failed UK GDP, high US inflation

For the Pound/Dollar instrument, the movements remain such that it is very difficult to attribute them to any particular wave structure. The minimums of the assumed waves c and b practically coincide, so it is difficult to understand where exactly the construction of a new upward trend section began, which, depending on this, can take the form a-b-c or a-b-c-d-e. So far I am relying on the layout of a-b-c-d-e. If this counting is correct, then the rise in quotes may end near the estimated level of 1.4240, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci, or on the way to it. Let me remind you that wave counting must first of all be clear and simple so that you can work with it and make money on it. Unfortunately, this clearly cannot be said about the current layout of the sterling. Also, unfortunately, the news background does not greatly influence the actions of the markets. Today, a whole lot of important reports have been released, but they practically did not affect even only the last wave, presumably e.

The news background for the Pound/Dollar instrument on Wednesday was encouraging and promising. In the first two days of the week, the instrument was practically immobilized, so the markets really hoped for statistics from Britain and the United States. Data were released early in the morning and it all started with the volume of GDP. The UK economy contracted 1.5% QoQ in Q1 2020. And that's all there is to know about the current state of the British economy, which has received a lot of praise lately due to the high rates of vaccinations. However, the result of this process is not yet visible in the first quarter. Perhaps the numbers will be better in the second quarter. For comparison, the US economy grew by 6.4% QoQ in the first quarter. Industrial production pleased the pound traders a little more, as the gain was 1.8% compared to February. However, the volume of investments, which in the first quarter decreased by 11.9% compared to the fourth quarter, were disappointing, as well as the balance of visible trade, the deficit of which increased to 11.7 billion pounds in March. But despite all the ambiguity and sometimes frank weakness of this package of statistics, the demand for the sterling in the first half of the day practically did not change. Well, in the second half of the day, the inflation report was released, after which the "roller coaster" began for the Pound/Dollar instrument. In a short period of time, the quotes fell by 60 basis points, rose by 70, and fell by another 50. In both charts I presented, it is clearly seen that after the publication of all reports, the instrument remained approximately where it was before their release.

At this time, the wave pattern continues to be very confusing, so I recommend waiting for its clarification. There are at least several variants of wave counting, each of which can be implemented in the coming weeks. The movement of recent days looks tempting, but the entire wave counting continues to look ambiguous.

The downward trend section, which began its construction a couple of months ago, is taking on a rather ambiguous form. As I said above, several wave counting options are possible at once. Unfortunately, different options offer different further developments. Therefore, it may be necessary to wait for some time for the current wave counting to clear up a little.