FX.co ★ Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on May 18. Analysis of the previous review and the pair's trajectory on Tuesday

EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair traded with low volatility on May 17, although, judging by the chart, there were movements. However, the volatility indicators clearly show that the pair has gone from the low of the day to a high of 43 points, which is very small even for the euro. Therefore, to some extent, it is even good that not a single buy or sell signal was formed. With such volatility, the target levels would hardly have been met. The pair did not even try to reach neither the Kijun-sen line, nor the extreme level 1.2175, which were the closest. An outright flat began at the US session. No important macroeconomic or fundamental event either, which, in principle, is clear even from the nature of the pair's movement. And so, trading positions were not opened on Monday.

EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, you can't tell right away that the pair was trading with low volatility, but it's true. The upward trend is maintained thanks to the trendline. Last Thursday, the pair tried to overcome it, but bounced off, so the upward movement continues. In fact, it is not entirely correct to associate a weak movement with the absence of macroeconomic reports. For some time ago, the pair could have issued a strong movement on Monday, when there were also no statistics and news. The movement may intensify today, although on Tuesday there will also be few important reports. Therefore, in general, the situation does not change. We still recommend trading from important levels and lines that are indicated on the hourly timeframe. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.2113, 1.2175 and 1.2190, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2082) and Kijun-sen (1.2116) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Today, the European Union is set to publish a report on GDP and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. The first report is the second estimate of GDP, so surprises are unlikely to be expected. In any case, the GDP will be negative and in any case, the euro has long ignored the state of the European economy. The same applies to the speech of the ECB President. It is unlikely that Lagarde will tell the markets something that they do not know or do not expect. And without such information, there will be no reaction. No important events for the US on Tuesday.

We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.

COT report

The EUR/USD pair increased by 60 points during the last reporting week (May 4-10). Thus, the European currency continues to be in high positions and may renew its 2.5-year highs in the coming weeks. Professional traders, who have started to reduce Buy-contracts (longs) since last September, have started to increase them again in the last few weeks. Recall that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, firstly, do not take into account the amount of money poured into the economy (any), and secondly, they do not reflect the demand for the dollar. Thus, in recent months, COT reports do not always reflect the real picture of what is happening in the foreign exchange market. Recall that large players can sell off the euro, but if the Federal Reserve pours trillions of US dollars, the euro will still rise in price, and the COT reports will show that the demand for the euro is falling. However, recently, the group of non-commercial traders seems to have rethought some things and will now follow the trend itself, the tone of which is set by the Fed. Commercial traders opened 17,000 new buy contracts and 5,500 sell contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the net position grew by 11,500 at once, which is quite a lot. The first indicator in the chart above shows the divergence of the lines showing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, so at this time we can conclude that the upward trend has resumed. The second indicator also shows that the "non-commercial" group has begun to increase buy contracts on the European currency.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.