To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:
In my morning forecast for the first half of the day, I paid attention to the level of 1.2152. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. You can see how the bears are trying to break below this range, which is not very good. Before the level test, just a few points were not enough, so it was not possible to achieve the formation of a false breakdown. For this reason, I was forced to skip the entry point. No other signals were formed in the market, and the technical picture for the second half of the day remained unchanged.
In the second half of the day, all attention will be focused on the meeting of the European Central Bank, which will only indirectly affect the direction of the European currency since no special changes in the bank's policy are expected. Many economists also do not believe that the regulator will make any changes to interest rates or the volume of bond purchases. Thus, the meeting will be a passing one. The bulls coped with the task for the first half of the bottom and defended the support of 1.2152. In the scenario of a repeated decline of the pair to this level, it is best to wait for the formation of a false breakdown and only then open long positions to return to the resistance of 1.2185. A breakout and a test of this area already from top to bottom on the volume can form an entry point into long positions to continue the upward trend in the expectation of another high of 1.2215. The next target will be the level of 1.2250, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the scenario of the absence of bull activity in the area of 1.2152, short positions can be safely opened from a large low in the area of 1.2113, or even lower - in the area of 1.2073 in the expectation of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:
The bears' desperate attempts to take control of the market even before the publication of the European Central Bank's decision failed. Against this background, the technical picture for them has not changed in any way. Sellers can only continue to fight for the return of the market, and they need to try to protect the large resistance of 1.2185, which was formed following yesterday's results and which buyers are now targeting. This level also acts as an intermediate upper boundary of the wider side channel. Only the formation of a false breakout forms a signal to sell the euro to reduce it to the middle of the side channel of 1.2152. The breakthrough of this level depends on the European Central Bank meeting and inflation in the United States. The lack of activity during the publication of the monetary policy report will quickly turn the attention of traders to the data on the US consumer price index. If the value of this indicator goes beyond the forecasts, the bears will easily achieve a breakdown of the support of 1.2152. A test of this level from the bottom up forms an additional signal to sell the euro in the expectation that the pair will return to the lower border of the side channel 1.2113, where I recommend fixing the profit. The next target will be a minimum of 1.2073. However, we will reach it only in the case of very strong inflation indicators in the United States. If there is no bear activity in the area of 1.2185 this afternoon, I recommend postponing short positions until the resistance test of 1.2215. But you can sell the euro immediately for a rebound only from a larger maximum of 1.2250, based on a downward correction of 15-20 points.
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 1 shows an increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones, indicating an increase in demand for the European currency in the last month of the second quarter. It is expected that in the summer, the European economy will show a particularly strong recovery, which will lead to new growth of the European currency in the area of annual highs. The lifting of several quarantine restrictions, which are still in effect in European countries, will lead to an even greater recovery of the economy, which will give it a boost through increased retail sales and inflation, which according to the latest data, has seriously increased in the euro area. Data on activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector also continue to please economists, which once again indicates a serious pace of recovery. Traders now perceive any strong movements of the EUR/USD pair downwards as an excellent opportunity to gain long positions in continuing the bull market. The dollar can only hope that the Federal Reserve System will seriously talk about reducing the volume of bond purchases in the summer. However, we will not know about this until mid-June. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions jumped from the level of 236,103 to 237,360, while short non-profit positions fell from the level of 132,103 to 128,038. It indicates an influx of new buyers in the expectation of continued growth of the euro and a wait-and-see attitude on the part of sellers.
Given that the pair had seriously recovered last Friday, this may indicate the formation of a new upward trend and the return of EUR/USD to local highs. It is where the bulls will continue to accumulate long positions with the expectation of going beyond them. It indicates a possible breakdown of the highs of last month in the near future and the continuation of the euro's growth. The total non-commercial net position increased from 104,000 to 109,322. The weekly closing price also increased from 1.22142 to 1.22326.
Signals of indicators:
Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, indicating market uncertainty ahead of important fundamental statistics.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2185 will lead to a sharp strengthening of the euro. A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2160 will increase the pressure on the pair.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.