FX.co ★ Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 06/25/2021

As expected, the Bank of England meeting ended in nothing. Naturally, no one was waiting for any decisions to be made, but plans were not even announced. Simply put, the Bank of England continues to pose as an ostrich with its head in the sand. They say I don't see or hear anything. And it does not matter that the Federal Reserve has already announced the timing of an increase in the refinancing rate, and the European Central Bank seems to do it during the upcoming meeting. Let this lead to an increase in the yields of European and US government bonds, increasing demand for them, and therefore making the pound less attractive. What's the difference. The Bank of England does not seem to notice any of this. So it is not surprising that as soon as the results of the meeting were announced, the pound instantly became cheaper.

Refinancing Rate (UK):

Something else was much more interesting. The fact is that the market actually ignored the US reports, which can be described as simply magnificent. Here you have a 2.3% increase in orders for durable goods. Although we expected growth of only 2.0%. And a reduction of 144,000 in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits, with a forecast of 14,000. However, the number of initial appeals decreased by only 7,000, instead of 58,000. But in any case, the total number of applications, which should have decreased by 72,000, decreased by 151,000. That is, twice as much. In other words, employment is growing, and with it consumer activity. Almost a perfect picture. However, the market did not react to this in any way. Apparently, the whole point is that after the Federal Reserve's meeting, investors' attention shifted to the monetary authorities. Market participants are much more concerned about how and when the monetary policy of a particular central bank will change. As well as the comments of the relevant persons. In such a situation, macroeconomic reports, and the real state of affairs in the economy, unfortunately, recedes into the background. And given the fact that no speeches by representatives of the monetary authorities are planned today, the market will clearly go into a sideways movement. Of course, data on the income and expenses of individuals are published in the United States. But as we saw yesterday, few people are interested in macroeconomic reports now. Moreover, much more significant data was published yesterday.

Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

During the last trading day, the GBPUSD currency pair managed to rebound from the resistance area in the face of the 1.4000 price level, which resulted in an increase in the volume of short positions. The corrective move that took place on June 21-23 was won back by about half.

After a short stagnation, the market dynamics switched to the acceleration mode again, this is confirmed not only by the numerical indicator, but also by the growth in the volume of speculative transactions in the market.

If we proceed from the quote's current location, then a slight rollback will be seen, which has passed into the stage of stagnation.

It can be assumed that stagnation in the 1.3912/1.3935 boundaries is of a local nature and may lead to a new round of acceleration. The following price values were determined as signal coordinates: 1.3888, with a downward development; 1.3955, with an upward development.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that technical instruments signal a sell, due to a partial recovery of downward interest in the direction of last week's momentum.