FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 29, 2021

The stagnation in the market continues and even the issue with the British Minister of Health, which led to his resignation, did not also affect the market in any way. There was a certain surge, but it was temporary and most importantly, quite average. Moreover, it is impossible to blame everything on the lack of any macroeconomic data, since the stagnation began not yesterday, but last week. But some data were still published after the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, which the market simply ignored. Therefore, the market needs quite good reasons to get out of this situation, but it is unlikely that today's data on the lending market in the UK will be able to move it from the dead point. And although the volume of mortgage lending is expected to rise by 3.4 billion pounds against 3.3 billion pounds in the previous month, the number of approved mortgage loans should be only 82.0 thousand. In the previous month, 86.9 thousand were approved.

In other words, we are talking about an increase in demand for more expensive real estate, which is mostly investment. On the one hand, this is quite good from the point of view of the investment attractiveness of the United Kingdom. However, the data are still secondary and will not be able to have a significant impact on the current conditions even if we add the expected growth of 0.2 billion pounds in the total volume of consumer lending. In this case, it is quite an attempt to restore the lending market, since the volume of consumer lending fell by 0.4 billion pounds in the previous month. For the last eight months, it has completely fallen by 8.3 billion pounds. Therefore, the expected growth is clearly not enough even for us to talk about the beginning of some kind of recovery.

Consumer lending (UK):

Today's US statistics also do not please us with any serious data. The only data to be published in the S&P/Case-Shiller is the House Price Index, which also belongs to the category of secondary data although the rate of growth in house prices is expected to rise from 13.3% to 13.8%.

S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index (United States):

The only thing that can somehow revive the market today is Germany's preliminary inflation data, which are published shortly before the US statistics. Here, inflation may slow down from 2.5% to 2.3%. Given the general panic due to the growth of inflation, its decline in the largest economy of the EU gives hope that Eurozone's inflation will at least stop growing before the publication of pan-European data.

If so, the Euro currency may stop the stagnation and pull other currencies along with it. But since the market has been actively ignoring macroeconomic statistics for quite a long time, investors will most likely not take any action and will prefer to wait for data on the entire euro area.

Inflation (Germany):

The EUR/USD pair has been following a sideways trajectory for several days in a row, without showing high volatility. It can be assumed that the movement in the range of 1.1900/1.1970 will continue today.

During the process of recovering the downward interest relative to the recent correction, the GBP/USD pair approached the base of 1.3859 from June 22, where a local slowdown occurred. To continue the recovery process, the quote must stay below the level of 1.3850, or else, there will be a prolonged stagnation.