
Overview:
USD/JPY is trading in lower range. The rate is underpinned by positive USD sentiment as U.S. economy appears to be outperforming other major countries and U.S. stocks displayed resilience overnight (S&P erased most of its early-session losses to finish at 1,562.85, less than three points from its all-time closing high of 1,565.15 set on Oct. 9, 2007); expectations that Bank of Japan will announce aggressive easing measures at its policy meeting April 3-4 to help meet 2% inflation target; demand from Japan importers and investment trusts. But USD/JPY gains tempered by flows to safe-haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid decreased risk tolerance (VIX fear gauge rose 2.98% to 13.15) as the euro-zone turmoil continues; lower U.S. Treasury yields; Japan exporter sales; residual Japanese fiscal year-end repatriation flows. Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish; five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and declining.
Recommendation:
Sell below 94.5 with downside targets at 93.87 and 93.53.
Support levels:
93.87 (Tuesday's low)
93.53-93.45 band (Monday's low-March 18 low)
92.99-92.92 band (March 6 low-March 5 low).
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 94.5 with upside targets at 94.91 and 95.14.
Resistance levels:
R1 - 94.91-94.97 band (Wednesday's high-Monday's high)
R2 - 95.14 (Friday's high)
R3 - 95.25
