According to the results of yesterday's trading, the main currency pair of the Forex market showed growth. It should be noted right away that, although the market sentiment has changed towards risky, investors were still cautious about the new COVID-19 delta strain, as well as the inflationary component. Yesterday cannot be called saturated with macroeconomic events. Let me remind you that at 12:45 London time, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on rates, and at 13:30 (London time), the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde will begin. Since rates are likely to remain at their previous values, the main attention of market participants will be focused on the rhetoric of the speech of the ECB heads. From the American statistics, it is possible to single out only the initial applications for unemployment benefits, published at 13:30 (London time). Well, let's see if the technical picture for EUR/USD has changed.
As can be seen on the daily chart of the euro/dollar, after the fall to 1.1752, the euro bulls found the strength to reverse the course of trading and level all losses. As a result, the session on July 21 ended with a slight increase, and the closing price was 1.1794. Although this is slightly below one of the key levels of 1.1800, a fierce struggle has unfolded around this mark, as previously expected. At the time of writing, trading on EUR/USD is conducted just near 1.1800. In my opinion, the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator continues to play a very active role as a resistance, which hangs over the pair and does not let it go higher. Today, this line passes at 1.1816, and if trading closes above this mark, there will be a chance for growth to higher prices.
One way or another, a lot of today's trading will depend on the tone of Christine Lagarde's speech. Soft rhetoric will negatively affect the exchange rate of the single European currency. But if "hawkish" notes are heard at the press conference of the ECB head, I do not rule out the pair's growth to the resistance of 1.1850, or even higher. In my opinion, in general, the speech of the ECB president will have a neutral tone, and everything will depend on market sentiment here. In general, the tasks of the opposing sides are as follows. Euro bulls need to break through the red Tenkan line, after which they once again check the resistance of sellers at 1.1850 for strength. The support zone is located in the area of 1.1771-1.1752, so bears need to break through it and finish trading below 1.1752. If this condition is met, the next goals at the bottom will be 1.1745? 1/1720 and 1.1700.
The pair is currently trading above the 50 simple and 89 exponential moving averages on the hourly chart. However, at 1.1807, the 200 exponent passes, the true breakdown of which will open the way to the resistance of 1.1850. According to trading recommendations, it makes sense to consider sales near 1.1850.