FX.co ★ Analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on July 28

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

There were several market signals on Tuesday, but almost all of them were unprofitable. In fact, the signal to sell in the morning had to be ignored because the MACD line, at that time, was way below zero. Long positions had to be ruled out as well because the indicator was not yet in the oversold area.

A similar situation occurred in the afternoon, but this time it was regarding a signal to buy in the market. It had to be ignored because firstly, the MACD line was far above zero. Then, sell positions are not possible because the indicator has not yet reached the peak value.

Fortunately after that, a signal to sell was successful, but the downward movement was not as large as expected.

Trading recommendations for July 28

Data on UK retail sales put pressure on pound yesterday, but it was immediately offset by the positive forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Today, its movement will depend on the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announces changes in the bond purchase program, pressure on risky assets will increase, which will lead to a decline in GBP / USD.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3900 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3946 (thicker green line on the chart). GBP / USD will climb up if the Federal Reserve maintains a soft policy. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3860 and 1.3805, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area in order to set off a market reversal to 1.3900.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3860 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3805. A decline will occur if the Federal Reserve says it will end the bond purchase program soon. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.3900 and 1.3946, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area in order to trigger a market reversal to 1.3860.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.