Bitcoin looks more optimistic on Tuesday. Yesterday the support level 44,807.24 (red dotted line) held out, and today the price is growing from it.
Of course, the daily candle is not closed yet, and the bearish flag is still there. But on-chain analysts point out that bitcoin bears are depleted and even selling at a loss this week, fresh data confirm.
Philip Swift, an analyst at the Decentrader trading platform, noticed that the bullish trend in relation to the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) persists.
SOPR, a classic indicator for determining oversold periods in the bitcoin markets, among other things, switched to "buy" for the first time since July last week.
The last time this happened, the price of BTC/USD rose to $53,000 over the next few weeks. Now, according to the expert, there are also high hopes for a repeat of this situation.
"Over the past few days, we've seen more online sales at a loss. This is optimistic, especially after the aggressive summer sales. The bears get tired. It's time for the bitcoin bulls to take over very soon," wrote Swift.
Investors are also betting on continued gains despite last week's price drop. Institutional investors continue not only not to sell, but also to buy cryptocurrency. This is evidenced by yesterday's statement by MicroStrategy about the purchase of 5,050 bitcoins.
Analyst Willy Woo, for example, took this as a sign that the company is acting as a custodian of bitcoins for others. He believes that it is easier for public companies to buy a convertible debt instrument from MicroStrategy in order to gain access to BTC than to hold the underlying asset.
On the other hand, Glassnode data shows bitcoin investors remain unmoved despite a huge drawdown that saw bitcoin plummet more than 50% in May.
Glassnode reports that recent intra-network indicators have shown that many bitcoins have changed places during the May correction and that long-term holders or investors who have kept their bitcoins inactive for at least five months are not afraid of volatility.
The company notes that over 16.8% of the BTC supply has been spent in the past 5 months and returned with a profit at a recent high of $52,800. Long-term holders now own 79.5% of the BTC supply, which is the equivalent of October 2020.
This suggests that many coins changed hands during the recent consolidation in the $29,000 to $40,000 range. It also indicates that BTC acquired in Q1 and Q2 2021 continues to hold, and investors are not worried about a drawdown of more than 50%.
Glassnode also notes that despite the September 7 drop, investors who bought bitcoin in the $45,800-$52,600 range continue to hold onto their coins, even though some positions remain in the red.
So, perhaps, fears about the bearish flag will not come true. But even if the fall deepens, it is unlikely to break the bullish outlook.
In the meantime, we will slightly shift the mirror level 47,124.39 (lower blue dotted line) and wait for a consolidation above it. If it happens, hopes for recovery, at least local, will remain.