Here are the details of the economic calendar for Sept 17:
The UK retail sales were released last Friday, which declined by 0.9% in August. Meanwhile, the annual rate declined to 0%. It can be recalled that an increase in the volume of retail sales was expected, but we received a completely different indicator.
The pound weakened at the time of the publication of statistics.
As for Europe, inflation data were published, where consumer prices were confirmed at the level of 3%. The market has already taken into account this data in the preliminary assessment.
Analysis of trading charts from September 17:
The euro weakened by around 70 points during the inertial decline, approaching the level of 1.1700. The oversold level is visible, but this does not stop sellers from further recovering dollar positions.
It can be recalled that the market's trading interest has changed from ascending to descending since September 6, where market participants aimed at complete restoration of dollar positions relative to the correction in the period from August 23 to September 3.
The trading plan on September 17 considered the subsequent decline towards the range of 1.1700-1.1670.
The GBP/USD pair managed to win back the resistance level of 1.3800. As a result, there was a sharp decline of more than 130 points. This move led to the recovery of the US dollar positions relative to the recent correction.
To clearly understand everything that is happening in the market, let's take a look at the chart below. The green ellipse highlights the correction course, which temporarily slowed down the downward cycle from the beginning of June. In turn, the red ellipse is the process of restoring dollar positions relative to the correction. Thus, the sellers of the pound sterling still have a chance to update the local low of 1.3600.
* Oversold market – a situation where prices have fallen too low and quickly. In this case, we are talking about the euro, which has lost almost 70 points in a short period of time.
* The resistance level is the so-called price level, from which the quote can slow down or stop the upward movement. The principle of constructing this level is to reduce the price stop points on the history of the chart, where the price reversal in the market has already occurred earlier.
September 20 economic calendar:
There are no significant statistics from the EU, Britain, and the United States today, so the market will be focused on information flow and on technical analysis.In most cases, Monday will not contain important statistics in the economic calendar, but this does not mean that the market will stand in one place on this day.
Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 20:
In this situation, keeping the price below the level of 1.1700 will lead to a prolongation of the downward cycle towards the local low (1.1664) of August 20. It is worth considering that the euro's oversold status is growing, and as a result, this may lead to a reduction in the volume of short positions and a temporary growth in the euro.
Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 20:
The speculative downward interest in the pound pulls it down, eventually having a high level of oversold. The price levels of 1.3650 and 1.3600 are considered as support, where a reduction in the volume of short positions is highly likely to occur. This will lead to a temporary slowdown of the descending cycle.Short positions or Short means sell positions.
What is reflected in the trading charts?
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.
The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
Golden Rule: It is necessary to figure out what you are dealing with before starting to trade with real money. Learning to trade is so important for a novice trader because the market is constantly dynamic and it is important to understand what is happening.