FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on September 23, 2021

EUR/USD

With impatience, and with a certain amount of intrigue, the expected Federal Reserve meeting took place. The announcement justified the intrigue, which can be formulated as follows: "if the coronavirus does not interfere, the vigorous recovery will continue." The Fed's expectations have improved: with an unknown start date for the rollback of bond purchases (probably in November), they may end in the middle of next year, and the rate in 2023 may be raised three times (against the previous forecast for a two-fold increase). The committee even raised its forecast for core inflation for the current year from 3.0% to 3.7% and for next year from 2.1% to 2.3%.

At the end of the day, the euro fell by 38 points, and 69 points from the day's high. The reversal occurred from the balance indicator line on the daily chart at the time when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech began, who directly linked the beginning of the curtailment of asset purchases with the level of employment, and employment depends on the pandemic.

From our point of view, the situation looks as follows: the Fed announced possible improvements, but kept silent about the likelihood of their implementation, of which it secretly doubts itself, since the currently developing fourth wave of the epidemic may exceed the third, the peak of which fell in the first decade of January with 303,000 diseases in day. The forecast for the peak incidence rate of the 4th wave is 375,000 per day.

Now the euro is in limbo - both bulls and bears are exhausted. Usually, in such cases, the market continues the medium-term trend, and it is now downward, with the target at 1.1640.

The September forecast for employment is really good: Nonfarm are expected to increase by 728,000, unemployment will remain at the current 5.2%.

The price convergence with the Marlin oscillator has formed on the four-hour chart. It is likely that today and tomorrow the euro will continue to move sideways (gray area), and on Monday the decline will continue on the release of data on orders for durable goods, the August forecast for which is 0.6%.