
The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 1.5390 suggesting a decline. However, a break of this level will initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 1.5390 with the 1st objective at 1.5330 and then at 1.5310. A breakthrough of 1.5410 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.5390 with the 1st objective at 1.5450 and then at 1.5470. A breakthrough of 1.5370 will invalidate this scenario.
