FX.co ★ AUD/USD: upside seems over, 0.6389 as critical support

The AUD/USD pair failed to stay above the 0.6500 psychological level signaling exhausted buyers. It has turned to the downside and it has closed the week at 0.6411 above 0.6389 Friday's low. The greenback is bullish, even though the US reported mixed data on Friday.

The Australian data could bring some action in the early morning. Retail Sales could report a 0.5% growth versus 0.6% in the previous reporting period, Private Sector Credit is expected to report a 0.7% growth, while MI Inflation Gauge will be released as well.

The RBA and FOMC are seen as high-impact events and could drive the market on Tuesday and Wednesday. As you already know, both central banks are expected to hike rates again. In addition, the US NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings could bring sharp movements on Friday.

AUD/USD Leg Down In Play!

Technically, after dropping below the uptrend line, AUD/USD signaled that the swing higher ended and that the price could develop a new sell-off. It has ignored the 0.6411 and it seems determined to approach and reach new lows.

The minor downtrend line represents a dynamic resistance. It could extend its downside movement as long as it stays below this line.

AUD/USD Forecast!

A new lower low, a bearish closure below 0.6389 opens the door for a larger drop and brings in new short signals.