US stock index futures fell in early trading on Tuesday after an extremely volatile session yesterday, when the Dow index lost more than 1,100 points, but eventually ended its day in the black. Many experts have begun to say that the market is being bought off quickly and that the observed pattern is characteristic of the end of a bearish trend, or the groping of the day. After that, consolidation is expected to begin, where large players will accumulate positions.
Today, futures contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by 36 points or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures fell 26 points, or 0.6%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 150 points, or 1%, having previously declined more than 2.2%.
As noted above, yesterday, the Dow gained 99 points, or 0.3%, breaking a six-day losing streak. The S&P500 rose 0.28% - after a drawdown of 4%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%, offsetting a 4.9% drop.
Despite yesterday's gains, the S&P 500 still lost more than 7.5% in January this year, which is the worst month since March 2020. Spooked by rising rates, investors have left the fast-growing areas of the market for a safer haven. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds on Monday was 1.769%.
Many buyers hoping for a fall are very actively buying off the market, which was significantly overheated at the beginning of this year. However, high volatility will continue until the Fed starts raising rates, or says more specific plans for increases this year.
The high volatility is primarily because the Federal Reserve System is expected to announce plans to reduce the Fed's balance sheet tomorrow, as well as shed light on the pace of interest rate hikes this year. So far, only four changes in monetary policy are predicted, which are necessary to combat inflation. During tomorrow's meeting, the committee is unlikely to start raising rates, but the likelihood of maintaining a tougher policy this year is quite high.
Yesterday's data showed that omicron seriously affected the economy at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, which affects its activity. However, there are no serious concerns that the virus will continue to terrorize Americans.
Several earnings reports will be presented today before the market opens, including Johnson & Johnson, 3M, General Electric, American Express, and Verizon. Microsoft will report earnings after the market closes.
It is worth noting an interesting fact regarding traders who work more with short positions. Sellers have already made huge profits this year, as the "brutal bloodbath" on the stock market brings huge gains on their bearish positions. According to S3 Partners, several sellers, as of the closing of the market last week, have already received a January profit of $ 114 billion, which is 11.6% more for the year. I wonder how much money yesterday's sale brought.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500
The market bounced up strongly from the $ 4,231 level, which I emphasized yesterday. While the volatility will be high enough, most likely, we will see another drawdown today below $ 4,351, which will lead to a decrease in the area of $ 4,312 and even to a retest of $ 4,269, where I advise you to buy the market. In the case of growth above $ 4,408, we can expect a jump in the index to $ 4,482, where it is best to lock in profits before tomorrow's meeting of the Federal Reserve System.