At the beginning of 2022, investors changed their approach to investing in the cryptocurrency market and specifically Bitcoin. The changes were associated with geopolitical processes and the economic crisis, which was provoked by a large-scale war on the territory of Ukraine. High-risk assets faded into the background, and investors focused on protecting existing capital. In this regard, gold showed a significant increase, which is historically considered a reserve vehicle for big capital.
However, subsequently, there was a local return to the normal flow of pre-war investment flows. This was evident in the growth of quotes of indices of high-risk assets, such as SPX. Despite this, Bitcoin has significantly reduced its correlation with high-risk financial instruments, which also indicates a gradual transformation of the asset. Glassnode data confirms that the positive correlation index between BTC and SPX has reached the level of Q4 2020.
At the same time, the cryptocurrency managed to update the local high at around $48k. This is a direct consequence of the fact that investors began to consider Bitcoin as a means of hedging risks, as well as the main reserve financial instrument. And if the ability of cryptocurrencies to protect capital from inflation, and even increase it, has long been known to everyone, then the use of Bitcoin as a reserve is a relatively new trend.
Investment flows into cryptocurrency with such a stated purpose began after Biden signed a decree on the regulation of the crypto industry. This turned out to be a very important signal for large investors. However, a much more important reason for increased interest in Bitcoin as a reserve was the freezing of the entire dollar and gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation.
Large companies and hedge funds have realized that the U.S. dollar and gold are not full-fledged guarantors of capital protection. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a decentralized structure and anonymity that allows you to sell assets for your own purposes, regardless of sanctions. This makes the cryptocurrency an attractive reserve with large revenue potential.
The Luna Foundation company in March acquired BTC worth about $1.4 billion to secure its stablecoin. This example can significantly increase the investment attractiveness of an asset in a new incarnation. VanEck even admits that the cost of one BTC coin can reach $1.4–$4 million if the cryptocurrency is made a global reserve. And taking into account the fact that both Bitcoin and gold have increased in price since the start of the war, it can be assumed that cryptocurrencies have the potential to replace precious metals as a full-fledged reserve in the long term.
Despite this, Bitcoin has stalled at around $46k in the long term. The cryptocurrency failed to make a bullish breakdown of the $48k mark due to the low activity of large investors. Bitcoin simply did not have enough purchase volumes to continue the upward movement. With this in mind, the asset reached the local support zone at $45k–$46k.
The asset is confidently holding at the 0.236 Fibo level, but before fixing the price and starting consolidation, the cryptocurrency tested the $44.2k mark, where the 0.382 Fibo level passes. As of April 4, we should expect the flat dynamics to remain, since the last three candlesticks do not demonstrate prerequisites for an impulsive movement in any direction.