FX.co ★ USDJPY: Daily analysis for May 28, 2013

Daily chart: USDJPY is bouncing heavily on bullish trend line near the support at the level of 100.94. Recall that during yesterday's session, almost all major pairs had very slight movements in the market, because it was a holiday in the USA and UK. With this rebound, this pair may rise to the resistance level at 102.12. On the other hand, if the pair breaks the support at the level of 100.94, it is expected to drop to the next support at the level of 99.81, below 100.00 parity. We must be careful with this pair, because the MACD indicator is in negative territory, but this is normal because the USDJPY pair has been conducting a bullish trend correction or consolidation and this bullish rebound could be the boost needed for the USDJPY pair to continue the bullish trend.

H4 chart: In this chart, we can clearly see that this pair is respecting the bullish trend line, forming fractal support below this trend line. The 200-day SMA is below this pair and support near the level of 99.93. The nearest resistance in this pair is the 102.38 level and if it is broken, it would be expected to rise to the resistance at 103.50 level. On the other hand, if the USDJPY pair breaks the support level at 99.65 and bullish trend line near that level, it is expected to fall to the support level at 98.38. The MACD indicator is trying to break into positive territory, because it is showing extreme oversold levels, which could support a bullish outlook on this pair.

H1 chart: Finally, the USDJPY pair is out the range between 101.32 and 100.79, breaking resistance is at 101.32 and resistance is at the 200-day moving average, trying to get close to resistance at 101.94 level. We must be careful to do intraday trading for this pair, because it has formed 4 Points of Control (POC), between 102.67 and 100.79 levels, serving as support and resistance, respectively, which could be considered as an area of high congestion or volatility. However, if the USDJPY pair breaks the resistance level at 102.94, it would be expected to rise to the level of 102.67 or, breaks the support at the level of 100.79, it is expected to drop to the level of 99.87. The MACD indicator is in positive territory, supporting a bullish outlook on this pair for the next hours.

Fundamental Outlook: For today's session in the United States, the CB Consumer Confidence (Previous: 68.1 / Forecast: 70.7) will be published at 14:00 GMT. If the current reading is higher than the forecast, the USDJPY pair could perform bullish movements during the hour. Recall that yesterday it was a public holiday in the U.S., so this session is expected to be more volatile than usual, in the USDJPY pair.



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H4 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDJPY pair breaks with a bullish candlestick, the resistance level is at 102.38, take profit is at 103.39, and stop loss is at 101.31.