Even though the information background has not changed in any way, and in general there was no news yesterday in principle, the market showed noticeable activity. And if during the European trading session, the single European currency and the pound declined, which fully fits into the general logic of the ongoing trend towards strengthening the dollar, then after the opening of the American trading session, they began to grow actively. Although there was no reason for this.
Orders for durable goods, as expected, increased by 0.4%, which is rather a positive factor for the dollar, as it indicates a further increase in consumer activity, which is the main engine of economic growth. So the publication of these data was more likely to contribute to the growth of the dollar, and not to the strengthening of the single European currency or the pound.
The content of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, published yesterday, did not come as a surprise either. In fact, it only once again confirmed what the market already knew for so long—an increase in the interest rate of 0.5% in the next two meetings. So from a fundamental point of view, the sudden weakening of the dollar is a complete surprise, without any basis. The reason for such strange behavior lies in the plane of technical analysis, which came to the fore in the absence of information background.
Durable Goods Orders (United States):
Given the fact that there is no news today other than jobless claims data, the market is likely to continue to rely on technical factors. After all, forecasts for claims are largely neutral. And if the number of initial claims can grow by 3,000, then the number of continuing claims should decrease by 7,000. The changes are extremely insignificant, and most importantly, they are multidirectional. So the data will cancel each other out. Therefore, there is no point in focusing on them.
Number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits (United States):
The EURUSD currency pair is still in the correction stage, despite clear signs of overbought. The recent pullback brought the quote back to the variable pivot at 1.0636, where there was an increase in the volume of long positions. There is no signal about the prolongation of the correction until the quote manages to stay above the value of 1.0750. Until then, a short-term flat just above the pivot is considered.
The GBPUSD currency pair at the peak of the corrective move formed a stagnation in the form of a side amplitude of 1.2500/1.2600. In this case, a signal about the prolongation of the correction will appear only after the stable holding of the price above 1.2600 in a four-hour period. Until then, traders consider the subsequent movement within the boundaries of the current amplitude.