Even before the opening of the US trading session, the dollar began to steadily strengthen its positions, which is quite strange. After all, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. Basically, just like today. In addition, there was also nothing in the news background that could somehow affect the development of events. It turns out that what happened most likely lies in the plane of technical factors. Which in general is not surprising, since amid the absence of obvious fundamental factors, the market is switching to technical ones. Also, such a situation may hint at the lack of market participants' faith in the prospects of Europe as a whole. After all, representatives of the European Central Bank are already directly talking about the imminent increase in the refinancing rate, which should be the first since 2011, and which should contribute to the strengthening of the euro.
However, the general state of the European economy, along with the increasing risks of energy shortages, which are most acute in front of the eurozone, cause more and more concerns. What is the trip of Olaf Scholz to Africa worth, in order to find alternative sources of supply, after the European Union's decision to abandon Russian energy carriers. It is quite obvious that even if Europe can find a replacement for Russian oil and gas, it will cost much more. And this is despite the fact that inflation is not even slowing down, and fuel prices are higher than ever before. In such circumstances, it is difficult to feel a sense of optimism about the European economy.
Since the beginning of June, the GBPUSD currency pair has been stubbornly trying to change the trading interest from an upward cycle to a downward one. This is indicated by the price consistently reaching the support area of 1.2450/1.2500.
The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving to the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which indicates traders' prevailing interest in short positions. RSI D1 is moving within the deviation of the 50 middle line, which indicates a slowdown in the corrective move.
The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 are directed downwards. This is a signal to sell the pound. Alligator D1 has interlacing between the MA lines, which indicates a slowdown in the upward cycle.
On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a corrective move from the pivot point of 1.2155, which fits into the clock component of the downward trend. The resistance area of 1.2670/1.2720 is on the correction path as resistance.
Expectations and prospects
We can assume that the long absence of updating the local high indicates the completion of the corrective move. The main signal to sell the pound is when the price stands firm below 1.2450 for at least a four-hour period. In this case, we will see a gradual recovery of dollar positions.
A complex indicator analysis has a sell signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the price movement within the support area. Indicators in the medium term have a variable signal due to the slowdown in the corrective move.