According to the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking now requires additions and adjustments, but it may still take a more or less digestible form. At the moment, the last downward wave has gone beyond the low of the expected downward trend segment, which I consider completed. Thus, the classical correction structure a-b-c will no longer work. Nevertheless, wave analysis allows for the construction of various correction structures, so a more complex three-wave formation w-x-y can be constructed. Anyway, the pound and the euro continue to show a very high degree of correlation, and both instruments should build approximately the same trend areas. Ascending. At the same time, according to the euro currency, it can be a classic a-b-c, and according to the pound, a rarer w-x-y. But in both cases, the instruments should now build an ascending wave, which should go beyond the peak of the previous ascending one. The wave marking on the British now looks not quite unambiguous, but still has the right to life. The fact that a stronger appreciation of the US currency did not begin after the Fed meeting is encouraging and gives chances for building the necessary upward wave.
American statistics unexpectedly supported the dollar.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 10 basis points on June 27. Market activity on Monday was again very low, but still not as low as in European terms. There was no news in the UK today, but just an hour ago a report on orders for durable goods in the United States was released. I didn't expect this report to have a strong impact on market sentiment, and it didn't. However, I cannot but note that the market did not stay away from this report either. It should start with the fact that the indicator of orders for durable goods has three components. The overall indicator, the indicator excluding transport orders, and the indicator excluding defense orders. For all three, values were expected to be slightly above zero, and in the case of the baseline, a slight reduction in volumes. However, real data showed that not everything is as bad as the market expected. The base indicator grew by 0.7% in May, the indicator excluding transport – by 0.7%, and excluding defense orders – by 0.6%. The market responded to these data by increasing demand for the US currency, but still, the report was not so important that the American grew significantly. It managed to grow in price by only 30-40 basis points. This change did not affect the wave marking in any way, as it is insignificant.
All three central bank presidents (Lagarde, Bailey, and Powell) will speak on Wednesday. I think that their speeches can finally bring the market out of the stupor in which it has been for more than a week. Wave marking is such a thing that does not assume any time frame, so the current ascending wave can be built as much as you want in time. However, when the tool is in one place, it makes working with it much more inconvenient. And we are all interested in working for profit, and not watching how the tool moves horizontally. Therefore, I hope that the events of this week will be able to move both instruments off the ground.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument has become clearer. I still expect the construction of an upward wave within the corrective upward structure. If the current wave marking is correct, then the instrument will continue to increase with targets located above the calculated mark of 1.2671, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci. I recommend buying each MACD signal "up".
On an older scale, the entire downward trend section looks fully equipped but may take on a more extended form. If the current correctional structure still takes an even more non-standard form, then adjustments will have to be made.